According to calculations of the German transmission system operators, the EEG surcharge is likely to increase from 3.592 ct/kWh in 2012 to between 3.66 and 4.74 ct/kWh in 2013.
In accordance with legal requirements, the four German transmission system operators (TSO) have published their forecasts for the 2013 EEG surcharge range and their 5-year medium term forecast.
With the EEG surcharge (EEG-Umlage, also called EEG reallocation charge), consumers pay for the difference between the guaranteed feed-in tariffs paid pursuant to the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) for renewable energy fed into the grids and the sale of the renewable energy at the EEX energy exchange by the TSOs. The complex system of the sale of the renewable energy by the TSOs and their compensation is laid down in AusglMechV and the corresponding AusglMechAV.
In line with AusglMechAV, the TSOs publish information concerning the installed capacity, the annual amount of electricity fed into the grid, feed-in tariffs paid to installation operators and the amount of EEG electricity sold to end-users.
Based on calculations by external experts, the TSOs forecast an EEG surcharge in the range of 3.66 to 4.74 ct/kwh for 2013. For 2012 the TSO had recently announced a reallocation charge of 3.592 ct/kWh (2011: 3.53 ct/kWh; 2010: 2.047 ct/kWh).
In 2016 the TSO expect an installed capacity of renewable energy sources of 94 GW, with solar power and wind power accounting for 91% (solar: roughly 44 GW, wind: roughly 42 GW).
According to the Federal Network Agency’s annual report for 2010, renewable energy capacity amounted to 54 GW in 2010. For 2016 the TSO predict an output of 101 TWh of electricity generated by renewable energy sources, for which feed-in tariffs of approximately EUR 19 bn will have to be paid (after deducting the electricity that is directly marketed by the operators).
Operators that sell green electricity directly to consumers shall be encouraged by a market premium that will be introduced with an amendment of the EEG that enters into force on 1 January 2012. The TSO believe premiums for a predicted output of 58 TWh will amount to another EUR 4.6 bn. Additionally, utilities that market a certain amount of renewable energy in accordance with the new Section 39 EEG 2012, will benefit from a reduction of the EEG surcharge of 2 ct/kwh (so-called green power privilege). The TSO expect 7.5 TWh to be sold under the green power privilege provision.
Several polititians have recently expressed their intention to keep the EEG surcharge at the current level. Based on the forecasts of the TSOs, this is unlikely to happen.
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